Over the past few weeks I have done a
bit of tweeting and I admit that sometimes I can get a bit wound up by
responses from people who have closed off their minds and refuse to even think
about what Brexit will really do to the UK. In this piece I decided to try and look
at the various pro Brexit arguments have heard and then use the facts at hand
to see if they are valid. The ultimate aim here is twofold. First, instead of
trying to engage one on one in pointless Twitter wars I decided to write down
my arguments, hopefully this will help me keep calm about the subject. Second
if it brings around one doubting Leaver by using the facts and not propaganda
then it will have done some external good as well.
Brexit will allow
us to create our own trade agreements which better suit the UK and grow the
Economy
The argument here is that we can be
free of the single market and negotiate our own trade agreements that better
suit the UK. While simplistically that is true there are various factors which
will hinder the process. The first is that these trade agreements take time
properly agree. There are some instances where it can take 10 years. We were
told by the Leave side that new agreements would be easy, especially the one
with the EU. To date I am only aware of less than 40 replacement trade deals with
the vast majority of them based on the current deal those countries have with
the EU already and so the UK by extension. So, what happened to negotiating our
own special deals?
The real root of the argument however
is massively flawed. The UKs biggest trading partner by some distance is, the
EU.
If we are unable to negotiate a free
trade agreement with the EU, or even if it simply takes a few years, then it
stands to reason that there will be a massive impact on imports and exports.
Prices will rise in the UK as tariffs are applied to EU imports and we will
export less as the cost of our own goods rise for the same reason. Even if we
are somehow able to offset this impact by negotiating new trade agreements
elsewhere it is unlikely that they would make up the shortfall anytime soon.
Following common sense if we can’t
sell as many goods abroad then we will make less so that naturally means lost
jobs. Fewer jobs means less tax gathered via income tax, so either the
government will be forced into more austerity measures, and we know how badly
that went/is still going, or they will be forced to increase taxes to make up
for the short fall. In short it will mean the UK goes back into recession and
all the impacts that will have.
You have to remember that the EU is
made up of 27 other nations and that is a lot of buying power. Yes China and the
US have a lot of buying power too but the US is more interested in reducing
imports and increasing exports, actively engaging in trade wars to this end.
China again are more interested in their own goods than they are other
countries and at present our goods cost too much for India and South America,
who can make similar goods cheaper than we can. We are dependent on the EU for
trade. So why would we shove this wedge in between us and our largest trading
partner?
Brexit will allow
us to take back control of our borders
Many Brexiteers, definitely led by
Nigel Farage in this case, would have you believe that immigration costs this
country huge amounts of money and that leaving the EU will allow us to take
back control of our borders by removing
us from the EU free movement of people, rules known as the Schengen Agreement.
OK maybe initially it does cost the UK
but their claims do not take into account what immigrants then contribute to
the country. However, set aside the economics for one minute (but we will come back
to them). Immigration has brought amazing diversity to our country. New ideas
and new viewpoints that enrich our lives. New art, new music, new food, new
technology, new ways of working and living. Some would say this diminishes our
own culture. But the UK doesn’t have one culture. It is made up of 4 nations
and various other territories, each with their own rich history which has been
intermingled with each other and with other nations for centuries. Cultures
evolve and grow, they don’t stay the same. The UK is not the same as it was in
the 1900s. Rock and roll, now an accepted art form was once seen as a danger to
society. Growth is change but not all change is growth.
- The average UK-based migrant from Europe contributed approximately £2,300 more to UK public finances in 2016/17 than the average UK adult. In comparison, each UK born adult contributed £70 less than the average, and each non-European migrant contributed over £800 less than the average.
- The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.
- Taken together, this means that the migrants who arrived in 2016 will make a total net positive contribution of £26.9 billion to the UK’s public finances over the entirety of their stay. The value of this to the UK’s public finances is equivalent to putting approximately 5p on income tax rates (across all marginal rate bands) in that year.
To put this plainly EU immigration
benefits the UK more than its own citizens and even non-EU migration, which we
already have full control over by the way, makes a positive contribution to
public finances. This basically means that the Brexiteer anti-immigration
stance is wrong. It’s wrong ethically and more importantly, to a lot of them,
it is very wrong economically.
But Brexit will also impact the UK
populations ability to go to Europe. No more free movement means, well we don’t
yet know what it means. Those who may have wished to retire abroad later in
life might find it more difficult and more expensive to do so. Why would other
nations which will be negatively impacted by Brexit welcome Britons to their
country? Even general holidays may, and I do state may become more difficult,
with potential needs for visas returning. All so we can get control of our
borders again. Where it counts, we already have control of our borders. This
argument is old, narrowminded and counter-productive, with very little basis in
fact.
Brexit will allow
to take back our Sovereignty and control of our laws
Em pretty sure we already set our own
laws. OK being part of the EU means we have agreed to certain circumstances
where there is a higher court, the European Court of Justice, but the majority
of laws are made and agreed by the UK parliament.
There is also the fact that the UK
holds a veto power in the EU and while it is not an all-encompassing power it
is significant. In many circumstances the UK can veto new laws proposed in the
EU, in other cases it needs allies, which it has, to block others. In certain
areas all 28 countries must agree before something can be passed. These areas
include taxes, justice, foreign affairs and the EU budget. This means if the UK
parliament/government doesn’t agree with something then it will be very
difficult for it to actually become a law and affect the UK.
It is true that with 28 nations it can
mean that it takes a while in many circumstances to get things done, but they
do get done. Basically, nothing really happens in the EU without the UK having
a significant say. To put this more into perspective since 1999 the UK has only
voted against 2% of new EU laws. Voting records show that the UK government has
voted against only 57 proposed laws, abstained 70 times and voted for 2474
laws. What this means is that the UKs wishes were followed 95% of the time. So,
if our wishes are being followed what are we against? Oh yeah that’s right most
of the time the government voted against a new law it was to do with new tax
dodge prevention laws. Amazing!
Now take laws governing standards for
manufacturing goods. Some have said that the UK needs to be free of the red
tape that is imposed by the EU. Much of this red tape is to do with health and
safety, something to UK claims to lead the way on, and standards for goods.
This, it is claimed, makes the goods more expensive to manufacture. But these
standards will still need to be met even if we leave the EU as they be required
to export our goods to the EU, the only difference is that if we do leave the
EU we will have no say on any changes to those standards. Let’s put it another
way goods imported to the UK must meet our standards to be sold on our market
so why would the EU not impose its own rules on goods imported to the EU?
The fact is Sovereignty, as it is
being bandied around, doesn’t really exist in this day and age. Countless
treaties, trade deals and other agreements have eroded this grand concept which
isn’t really all that measurable anyway. What really counts is that we as the
public can have a say which we do through voting in Councillors, MPs, MEPs,
MSPs and other elected positions. What really needs to be understood is are
these elected representatives really carrying out the wishes of the people? Do
they have the Country’s best interests at heart? Do we believe they are telling
the truth? If we don’t then we get rid of them at the next election.
Brexit can save the
Union
Various leading Brexiteers have
claimed that by delivering Brexit we can unite the country and save the Union.
What they failed to say is how they intend to achieve any of this. In fact, it
has become a soundbite which both the Brexit Party and the Conservatives have
extensively used. “We will unite the country!” OK, can someone tell me how
exactly they intend to do this. With the country so split between Leave and
Remain how do they intend to heal that divide? That detail has been sorely
lacking.
A recent graphic from YouGov has been
doing the rounds showing what Conservatives would be willing to sacrifice just
to see Brexit come true.
Just look at this chart. The average
Tory would be willing to see the Union split, do significant damage to the
economy and see their own party be destroyed just to bring about Brexit. Now I
know some Brexiteers would say that is patriotic but let’s be truthful here
this is nothing short of madness. They are willing to do significant damage to
the country to see it “free” from the EU. They can’t even properly define what
they mean by free! And why are they willing to do this? Because as they see it
failure to do so would mean the end of the Tory Party. That’s right party
before country.
To save the Union Tories would have to
actually care about it. On one hand they say that the Union must stick together
that they are delivering a Brexit for the whole UK. But they won’t properly
engage with the devolved administrations. They take nothing into consideration
other than their own wishes and are willing to see the country burn and split
to make their nightmare scenario come true, by their own admission!
The Tories, in particular the Scottish
Tories, have made a great song and dance about how the SNP are the greatest
threat to the Union, but then according to them so is Jeremy Corbyn, while in
the mean time they would happily sell out the Union to bring about Brexit. Does
that not make them the greatest threat to the Union?
A No deal Brexit
means we don’t have to pay the Divorce Bill
Ok this is just utter nonsense. If we
don’t pay this settlement it will have massive repercussions. It would be like
not paying your mortgage or car payments. The UK's credit score would plummet.
Yes, the UK has and needs a credit score. It determines the cost of the
Government borrowing money, and let’s face it if there is one thing this Tory
Government can do well it’s borrow shit loads of money.
More fundamental than this though. If
we don’t pay our debts, why would the EU negotiate a good new trade deal with
us if we start with a show of bad faith? Why would any other nation trust us in
these matters ever again?
We must now
complete Brexit because not doing it would be undemocratic
This section can be summed up by
saying that some believe that not delivering Brexit would be undemocratic,
consequences be damned. In addition, another referendum would be undemocratic.
I’m sorry but none of these statements are true, unless you are seeking to
simply revoke Article 50 without a vote. Let me explain what I mean.
It has got the stage that we cannot
simply revoke Article 50. A vote was taken, and the Leave side won and that
cannot be ignored. However, it is also true to say the vote was based on a
principle of wanting to leave. The vote never said how. But still you cannot
simply deny the outcome of the referendum that is undemocratic. The only way to
legitimately stop Brexit is to show the will of the people has changed with
another vote. I would propose it should be done in the following format.
Q1. Straight Leave or Remain – simple
enough do we will still want to leave or not.
Q2. Deal or No Deal - If we do want to
leave should we take the deal on the table or leave without the deal
I would propose that for a ballot
paper to be valid people MUST answer both questions. This way is it not
splitting the vote three ways. It simply says leave or remain but if we do want
to leave should we take the deal or not. Anyone who does not complete both
questions would have their ballot voided. This is fair and democratic and
confirms the will of the people while giving the Government a way forward.
There is also the argument that if
people want another referendum that we should implement the first one then hold
another once a period of time has passed. There is a major flaw in this argument.
Once we leave we cannot get back into the EU with the same terms. As a founding
member we have been able to keep the pound and have a veto. To go back after
leaving we would have to accept the Euro and no veto powers. Therefore, we must
be sure this is what we want BEFORE we leave. Anything less is risks betraying
the UK population.
The other option is a General
Election. But I don’t see the Tories calling one as they would probably lose
it.
Other arguments
The EU is building an army. Nonsense.
It is true that the members agree to defend each other and that an attack on
one member is an attack on them all. But is this not true of all alliances?
Also, how exactly would you stop an EU army being made if we are not part of
the EU?
The EU is undemocratic. The UK has
just had its second unelected PM since the start of Brexit. May ways made PM in
the first instance unchallenged within the Tory and now we have Dick, sorry I
mean Johnson. EU Parliament positions are elected. Higher positions are
negotiated by those elected persons. If there are multiple people put forward
for the positions, they have a vote. Yes, things take a while to get done in
the EU but there are 28 nations in the EU, that’s a lot of negotiating.
Final Say
I know this blog will not be able to
convince anyone who is now set in their ways and unwilling to listen to other
points of view. But I hope that some will read it and realise that we need to
democratically stop the Brexit process for the good of the country. Brexit
really is one of the biggest threats this country has faced since World War 2.
The possibility for harming the population is so significant it should never
have been attempted, at least not without some sort of plan or the at the very
least a staged withdrawal in collaboration with the population.
If I say to you do you want to buy a
car, you say yes and then I tell it’s an old banger that costs a fortune, you
are not exactly just going to continue to agree because you said yes in the
first place. As adults we constantly reconsider the decisions we make and stop
ourselves from following through with actions which would do us harm. Why is
Brexit any different? Now we know the harm it will cause is now, or even 6
months ago, not the right time to ask the people again, do we really want to
move forward with this? And if we do how do you want to move forward?
If the people chose to cancel Brexit,
as I believe they would, we must then work with the EU and the Leavers to
address their concerns. But we must drop all the propaganda and hatred this
issue has stirred up. We can never heal the divide completely, at least not the
in short term. But maybe, just maybe we can make a positive start.
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